Is the bull market in commodities over? The 75 per cent reduction in the Federal funds rate and big rally in the stock market has some wondering if the whole cycle of monetary stimulus may be almost finished.
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'
Domestic institutional investors pumped Rs 2.3 trillion into equities during H1 CY24. Of this, mutual funds contributed 80%.
The universe of stocks trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 50x or more has swelled by 2.5x to 104, indicating the growing froth in the market. In March 2023, the number of stocks with a P/E of 50x and 100x stood at 41 and 3, respectively, which has now grown to 104 and 9, according to an analysis by Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE).
'Sectors like e-commerce, small finance, housing finance, and healthcare are in great favour, and people are paying a PEG ratio of up to 5, which is dangerous.' 'Wealth destruction is inevitable.'
'We expect the bull-market phase to still persist, but now led by large-caps which offer better valuation and benefit from FII inflows.'
'We expect continued pressure on midcaps, but any sharp correction looks unlikely from here on.'
Shares of Tata Group companies on Thursday rose up to 10 per cent, with Tata Chemicals and Tata Teleservices among the major gainers. Tata Sons Chairman Emeritus Ratan Tata, who played a key role in transforming the group into a global conglomerate, passed away late on Wednesday. He was 86. "Investors can pay tribute to Ratan Tata and the great corporate empire he built by buying stocks like TCS, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Consumer and Indian Hotels.
Major global indices - the Nasdaq, Bovespa, Seoul Composite, S&P 500, Dow Jones, S&P BSE Sensex, NYSE, DAX, Nikkei and, CAC 40 - have all gained 37 per cent to 75 per cent since their respective March 2020 low.
The main reasons for this latest rally include strong foreign institutional investor flows, healthy Indian and Chinese manufacturing data as well as less than severe Basel-III norms.
Average residential property prices in seven cities increased 10% to 34% due to new supplies in the luxury and ultra-luxury segments and overall demand.
Investing heavily in a top-performing fund during good times can cause long-term pain. Don't invest lump sum at market peaks.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
Analysts remain bullish on the road ahead for the equity markets, but warn against volatility on account of domestic and global cues. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections back home and the interest rate trajectory of the US Federal Reserve, they said, will be the two most important factors that the markets will keep a tab on. That apart, the valuation of the Indian markets, they feel, will also be eyed in context of how global peers are performing.
Ask rediffGURU and PF and MF expert Janak Patel your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
There are overvaluation and excesses in many pockets of the market. This is most obvious in the IPO market, where loss-making companies have inflicted large losses on investors, observes Debashis Basu.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
Trump couldn't care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran's 'de-nuclearisation' and 'de-militarisation.' Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as a partner in America First, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'When fund managers talk of being bullish for the long term, they assume strong economic growth.' 'That is what they have assumed every year, naively believing the pronouncements and promises of ministers.' 'Unfortunately, they have been wrong year after year,' observes Debashis Basu, editor, www.moneylife.in.
India will be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, Morgan Stanley said. From a $3.5 trillion economy in 2023, the Indian economy is projected to expand to $4.7 trillion in 2026, which will make it the fourth largest in the world behind the US, China and Germany.
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
'Asset allocation should change only if your goals, life situation, or risk profile have changed.'
'Investors should look to incrementally allocate towards equity from a medium-to-long term horizon.'
In the India-Pakistan situations, off-ramps have come either through foreign mediation (after months of kinetic warfare over Kargil, and a long stand-off with Op Parakram) or when a situation made it possible for both sides to claim a win, explains Shekhar Gupta.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
Average monthly searches for 'bull market' have gone down significantly from May-June peak.
Titan was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding 1.39 per cent, followed by HDFC, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra. On the other hand, Asian Paints, SBI, M&M, TCS, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were among the winners, spurting as much as 3.25 per cent.
For the first time, the event will take place across three locations in Delhi: Bharat Mandapam at Pragati Maidan, Yashobhoomi Convention Centre at Dwarka, and India Expo Mart at Greater Noida.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra were the biggest gainers. NTPC and Asian Paints were the laggards.
Market downturns or regulatory shifts can reduce liquidity, making it harder to buy or sell assets when needed.
From the Sensex basket, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the biggest laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were the major gainers.
The markets tend to react six to eight months in advance
This year's tally is the second best ever after 2022 when 16 firms raised Rs 40,311 crore, led by LIC's biggest-ever IPO.
Abhishek Bachchan's sneering expression is ill-quipped to convey the confidence of a wheeler-dealer. Those frequent bouts of muahaha make it worse. So much worse, says Sukanya Verma.
The number of dematerialised (demat) accounts required to hold shares and other securities in electronic format rose by 3.1 million in April, bringing the total tally to a fresh record of 154.5 million. Since December last year, the new additions have consistently remained above the 3 trillion mark, a sign that the stock markets continue to attract new investors despite a spike in volatility.
Many factors responsible for investors' interest in India are now rapidly receding.
